Oceania rising: a new look at the women’s eight

Recap of last four years: The last four years saw a changing of the guard from former quadrennials where there was a clear favourite heading into the Olympics. An undefeated decade (and more) of American dominance came to a close following that nation’s win at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games. Prior to that Romania was consistently the boat to beat.

This Olympiad has seen the rise of New Zealand and Australia, the resurgence of Romania, the re-development of the United States and the ever-present threat of Great Britain, Canada and the Netherlands. This represents the growing strength of the boat class across the world and also the lack of certainty in being able to pick a winner.

• 2019 World Championships: NZL, AUS, USA, CAN, GBR, ROU
• 2018 World Championships: USA, CAN, AUS, NED, ROU, GBR
• 2017 World Championships: ROU, CAN, NZL, USA, GBR, NED

Must watch: New Zealand’s steady stem-roller of a race at the 2019 World Rowing Championships is definitely a must watch in the lead-up to the Tokyo Games. Going bow-to-bow-to-bow with the United States and Canada, the Kiwis crossed the 500m line in fourth place with the Australians already opening up a lead. Shaking off Canada and the United States over the next quarter of the race, New Zealand held on to Australia, even as the Aussies extended their lead on the rest of the field.

With 500m to go, it was still Australia ahead, but the gap was narrowing and New Zealand finally found their stride. Stroke after stroke, the Kiwis not only took control of the race, but crossed the line a boat length ahead. A neck-and-neck race for bronze saw the Americans take the medal by a canvas over the Canadians. Check out the action from that race here.

Closest medal race: This happened in 2017 with the closest World Rowing Championships medal race of the Olympiad. With Romania the clear leaders, the rest of the podium was an open field as Great Britain and New Zealand battled for silver and bronze through the first half of the race.

Meanwhile, Canada and the United States were locked bow to bow in a race of their own that sped them past a faltering Great Britain mid-race and put the pressure on New Zealand with 500m to go. With a surge in the final stretch, it was suddenly Canada and New Zealand going stroke for stroke and finishing in that order for silver and bronze with only 0.18 seconds between them. Relive the excitement of that race here.

World Best Time: 5:54.16 (USA) The Americans set this time in the final of the 2013 World Rowing Cup III in Lucerne, Switzerland. The United States also hold the standing Olympic Best Time of 5:56.55, set in the heats of the Athens 2004 Games.

Performance of the Olympiad: Australia and New Zealand have each proved themselves like never before. Twice each on the World Championships podium including a race for gold and silver that really could have gone either way in 2019, the Kiwis and Aussies are the clear top performers of the Olympiad heading into the Tokyo Games.

Quotes of the Quadrennial: “That was incredible! We trusted ourselves and we all couldn’t be happier with this result. Our plan was to stay focused and internal and we did just that.” Jackie Gowler (s), New Zealand, Gold at the 2019 World Rowing Championships

Olympic qualifiers to date: NZL, AUS, USA, CAN, GBR (5 of 7 spots)

The ramification of an ‘extra year’: As historic underdogs who have only shown their gold medal potential in recent years, both New Zealand and Australia will almost certainly benefit from the additional year of preparation for the Tokyo Games. The adversity of a year of lockdowns, missed regattas and logistical hurdles will also have an impact. We will have to wait and see whether these difficulties serve to wear teams down or become a rallying cry for even more focus on the collective goal of 2021.

Olympic prediction: If Australia and New Zealand can keep up their momentum, there could be a two-race scenario in the Olympic final – one where the Kiwis and Aussies fight for gold and silver, and another where everyone else challenges for bronze. History, however, has shown that when the pressure is on in the women’s eight, the traditional powerhouses are able to rise their game.

Romania in particular may prove a wild card. That crew benefitted from racing and winning the 2020 European Rowing Championships, however none of their main Olympic contenders were there.

Fun fact: In four decades of women’s rowing at the Olympics, only four nations have ever won gold in the women’s eight. East Germany was dominant early on, winning gold in 1976, 1980 and 1988, while Romania was top crew at three consecutive Games in 1996, 2000 and 2004. The United States won its first gold in 1984 and then two decades later pulled off their own string of victories in 2008, 2012 and 2016. Canada is the only other nation to win gold in the event, achieving that in 1992. A win for either Australia or New Zealand would add another nation to this list.