An ever-changing playing field; The men’s quadruple sculls

It has been anything but usual this Olympiad and the men’s quadruple sculls adds to the unusual element with its wide range of ever-changing successful crews. With the delay in the Olympics until 2021, this boat class is a hard one to predict.

Recap of the last four years: Following their win at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games, two-times defending Olympic champions, Germany, fell off the radar in this event until building back to an A-final finish in 2019. In the German’s absence, Lithuania claimed their first ever World Championship title in this event in 2017 and in 2018 Italy climbed to the podium’s pinnacle for the first time since 2000.

The Netherlands similarly made history in 2019 with that nation’s second World Championship win in the men’s quadruple sculls. While 2020 saw no World Championships, the Dutch crew claimed gold at the 2020 European Rowing Championships, putting them a strong position heading into the 2021 Olympic year.

• 2019 World Championships: NED, POL, ITA, AUS, GER, CHN
• 2018 World Championships: ITA, AUS, UKR, NZL, NED, POL
• 2017 World Championships: LTU, GBR, EST, NED, POL, NOR
• 2016 Olympics: GER, AUS, EST, POL, GBR, UKR

Must watch: The 2017 World Rowing Championships final is the must watch race of the quadrennial. Lithuania finished with gold, but it was never a sure thing as they found themselves near the back of the pack crossing the first 500m point. Britain, Estonia and Norway seemed within reach of the top spot, but just couldn’t get there as the early-leading Dutch dominated the first half of the course. All the while Lithuania was building into an incredible third quarter where they advanced to within a canvas of the Dutch bow with 500m left to go. That surge broke through the Dutch, who found themselves in a battle to the line where three crews crossed with 0.79 seconds between them – the British, Estonians and Dutch for silver, bronze and fourth place.

Closest medal race: If that wasn’t close enough, the next year’s 2018 World Rowing Championship final saw an even tighter race with only 0.11 seconds separating Ukraine from New Zealand for the Bronze medal position. Ukraine held the lead in the first quarter, but fell back by half way to a surging Italy and a strong Dutch crew. This is where things really started heating up as Italy steadily moved ahead leaving five boats vying for the remaining podium positions. The Ukrainians crossed the 1500m mark in sixth and three seconds behind the leaders. They managed to cross the line in bronze behind Australia, who took silver, and Italy with the gold medal.

World Best Times: 5:32.26 (UKR) The Ukrainian crew of Dmytro Mikhay, Artem Morozov, Olexandr Nadtoka and Ivan Dovgodko set the current World Best Time in the final of the 2014 World Rowing Championships in Amsterdam (NED).

Performance of the Olympiad: The Netherlands generated remarkable momentum through the quadrennial from having no entry at the Rio Games through a Fourth place finish at the 2017 World Rowing Championships, fifth in 2018 and then putting their country atop the podium for the first time in this event with gold in 2019. That win was also the largest margin of victory (3.84 seconds over second place Poland) in a World Championship final this past quadrennial.

Olympic qualifiers to date: NED, POL, ITA, AUS, GER, CHN, NOR, GBR (8 of 10 spots)

The ramification of an ‘extra year’: The extra year will play out differently for each crew with those unable to compete in 2020 able to bring an element of surprise to the competition. Australia will certainly benefit from the warm weather of the current southern summer while many northern crews may not be able to travel as usual to training camps.

Olympic prediction: It is hard to bypass the Dutch. They found themselves in the top spot in the last full season of international racing in 2019. They had another solid performance in 2020 at the European Championships and will surely be keen to continue their winning ways in 2021. Poland will be determined to prove themselves after an incredible 2019 season that saw back-to-back-to-back gold medals at World Cups I, II and III only to be followed by a silver at the World Championships.

Italy have shown a resurgent strength in this event throughout the quadrennial and history indicates that the Italians are hard to dislodge from the podium once they gain a foothold. Finally, with an up and down record of success since Rio, Lithuania is a bit of a wild card looking ahead to Tokyo. They’ve gone from ninth at the Rio Games to gold at the 2017 World Championships, to twelfth the year after and then losing in the repechages in 2019. They were then back on the podium at the 2020 European Rowing Championships. This is a crew with lots of potential.

Fun fact:  The weight of history might just prove to be a factor for the Germans who have won this event more than any other nation since the men’s quadruple sculls made their debut on the Olympic rowing schedule at the Montreal 1976 Games. Even without counting three golds to crews before reunification (East Germany 1976, 1980 and West Germany 1984), German crews have taken gold four times out of the remaining eight Olympics since (1992, 1996, 2012, 2016). Italy comes next with two wins (1988, 2000), while Russia and Poland have one gold each (RUS 2004, POL 2008).