It has been anything but usual this quadrennial. Here’s a look back at the last four years in the hopes of predicting what might happen as we head into the 2021 season.

Recap of last four-years:
In the last Olympic cycle, the men’s eight has been almost synonymous with Germany. The Deutschlandachter has gone almost unbeaten in this Olympic cycle, set the World Best Time and is now chasing down the ultimate prize: Olympic gold.

Four years ago, the German men’s eight was heading into the Rio 2016 Olympic Games with almost the same track record. But they were deprived of Olympic glory when Great Britain pulled out all the stops and put forward their best eight of the cycle. Germany has been waiting eight years for their Olympic gold. Now they will have to see how they fare after nine.

Throughout the rest of the field the performance has been scattered. Australia, Italy, Great Britain, the Netherlands and the United States have all picked up World Championship medals, but none of them have had consistent performances.

2017 World Championships: GER, USA, ITA, NED, ROU, NZL
2018 World Championships: GER, AUS, GBR, USA, ITA, ROU
2019 World Championships: GER, NED, GBR, AUS, USA, NZL

Fun fact: The coxswain for the German men’s eight Martin Sauer began his international career 20 years ago in the junior men’s eight. The crew won gold at the World Rowing Junior Championships in Zagreb, Croatia. Sauer will soon become a father and is now a qualified lawyer, but decided to stay with the team through one more Olympic Games stating that he wanted ‘that Olympic feeling’ one more time.

Closest medal race: The 2018 World Rowing Championships – Great Britain and Australia went stroke for stroke for the silver medal. Australia pipped the British at the line by .03 seconds.

Must watch: 2017 World Rowing Cup III in Lucerne, Switzerland
Watch as Australia and Germany battle to the line, with the Aussies trying desperately to break the German winning-streak, which was still in its early days. If they had – would the Olympic cycle have looked different?

Quote of the quadrennial:
“We expected one hell of a ride! We know that Germany and Great Britain are strong so we expected a fight. Unfortunately, we missed a bit of pace so I’m satisfied but not content.” – Boudewijn Roell, Netherlands, Bronze, 2019 European Rowing Championships

Olympic qualifiers: Germany, Netherlands, Great Britain, Australia, United States. Five of seven places were determined at the 2019 World Rowing Championships. The remaining two places will be set at the Final Olympic Qualification Regatta in 2021.

The ramification of the ‘extra year’:
Germany has managed to keep its men’s eight together for the extra year. Despite disruptions to their training camp plans, the team has been able to train regularly since May. This is likely to help them maintain condition for the extra year. Other top teams such as Australia, The Netherlands and the United States have had to navigate some athlete retirements, but are likely able to come back strong regardless.

Olympic prediction:
The German men’s eight will have to maintain the fire that has been burning since their silver medal at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio for one more year. But their dominance over the last cycle indicates that they will be on the podium in Tokyo. The other two crews to join them is more difficult. It looks like Australia and the Netherlands are probably in the best positions to do so. Only time will tell.

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